The Next 200 Years: A Scenario For America And ... -

In their 1976 work, , Herman Kahn and his colleagues at the Hudson Institute present a bold, optimistic vision of human progress that stands in direct opposition to the "limits to growth" pessimism of the era. The book argues that humanity is in the midst of a "Great Transition" from a state of poverty and vulnerability to nature toward a future of universal affluence and mastery over the physical world. The Core Thesis: The Great Transition

He argues that "exhaustible" resources are actually plentiful. For instance, he points out that aluminum makes up 8% of the earth's crust, making claims of its total exhaustion mathematically improbable.

Kahn suggests that massive projects, like efficiently farming the Ganges basin or greenhouse farming in the Sahara, could produce enough food for 15 billion people. The Four Perspectives on the Future The next 200 years: a scenario for America and ...

Kahn envisions a world of 15 billion people who are "numerous, rich, and in control of the forces of nature," with a per capita gross world product of approximately $20,000 (in 1976 dollars).

Sees disaster as a likely outcome unless major changes occur. In their 1976 work, , Herman Kahn and

Believes disaster is inevitable without immediate zero-growth policies.

Believes success is contingent on continued technological and social adaptation. For instance, he points out that aluminum makes

A more detailed between his views and the Limits to Growth report. Let me know which area you'd like to expand on! THE NEXT 200 YEARS A SCENARIO FOR AMERICA ... - CIA